Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,440$ on 2020-10-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $324$ on 2020-10-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,818$ on 2020-10-11

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $60,368$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,379.7}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 108.5)}}\) (asimptote \(61,379.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,088$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,981.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,981.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,880$ on 2020-10-11

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $354,950$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263,547.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(263,547.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,166$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,003.3}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 47.1)}}\) (asimptote \(35,003.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,075$ on 2020-10-11

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,762,546$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,969,956.6}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,969,956.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $214,768$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{206,676.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 88.7)}}\) (asimptote \(206,676.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,472,701$ on 2020-10-11

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $606,447$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{426,655.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 90.8)}}\) (asimptote \(426,655.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,915$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,097.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 45.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,097.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $561,029$ on 2020-10-11

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,451$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,333.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 99.1)}}\) (asimptote \(90,333.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,894$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,778.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,778.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $92,557$ on 2020-10-11

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $326,309$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{259,245.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 62.2)}}\) (asimptote \(259,245.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,626$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,135.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,135.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,700$ on 2020-10-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 99%
Mauritania recovered 96%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 96%
Kazakhstan recovered 91%
Madagascar recovered 88%
Saudi Arabia recovered 86%
Korea, South recovered 80%
Uzbekistan recovered 74%
El Salvador recovered 67%
Cuba recovered 63%
Senegal recovered 63%
Malawi recovered 57%
Bolivia recovered 52%
United Arab Emirates recovered 51%
Tajikistan recovered 43%
Bahrain recovered 41%
Rwanda recovered 41%
Venezuela recovered 36%
Bangladesh recovered 31%
Denmark recovered 19%
Israel recovered 17%
India recovered 15%
Iraq recovered 11%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,876$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,170.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,170.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.3)}}\) (asimptote \(26.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $144$ on 2020-10-11

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,550$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,153.0}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 92.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,153.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(158.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-10-11

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,154$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,499.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 100.6)}}\) (asimptote \(19,499.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $120$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 82.4)}}\) (asimptote \(124.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $236$ on 2020-10-11

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,831$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,656.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,656.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,746$ on 2020-10-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,744.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,744.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,044$ on 2020-10-11